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Dereliction of Operational Expertise: How Self-Efficacy Shapes Decisionmaking - Wargaming Pitting Bankers Against USMC Generals, Confidence Impact on Leader Cognitive Functions, Dunning-Kruger Effect

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Dereliction of Operational Expertise: How Self-Efficacy Shapes Decisionmaking - Wargaming Pitting Bankers Against USMC Generals, Confidence Impact on Leader Cognitive Functions, Dunning-Kruger Effect

4.85 30,453 ratings · 2,793 reviews
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Overview: In 1995, LtGen(R) Paul Van Riper pitted bankers against U.S. Marine Corps generals in two contests - a stock exchange simulation and a wargame. The venture capitalists won both exercises, beating standing operational leaders that represented decades of deployment and experience. LtGen(R) Van Riper believed that the money managers success stemmed from resiliency and confidence in ambiguous situations. Learning from this failure, the U.S. Army may be able to increase operational leader effectiveness by fostering self-efficacy - confidence - in relation to observed ability.A literature review discusses the doctrine and theory behind how commanders discern the environment, learn as adults, and explains how leaders make rapid decisions during execution. Human subjects research replicates the general aspects of the 1995 wargame, now modified for play between instructors from the U.S. Army Command and General Staff College and civilian recreational board-gamers. Information collected explores the validity of LTG(R) Van Riper's claim while simultaneously measuring confidence levels. The discussion describes the impact of confidence on leader cognitive functions when making rapid decisions. Recommendations provide options on utilizing self-efficacy in leader development.This compilation also includes a reproduction of the 2019 Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community.Contents: 1. Introduction * 2. Literature Review * Complex Adaptive Systems * Experiential Learning * Naturalistic Decisionmaking * Self-Efficacy * 3. Methodology * Self-Efficacy Survey * Wargame Practicum * 4. Results * Self-Efficacy Survey * Wargame Practicum and Interviews * 5. Discussion * The Dunning-Kruger Effect * The Impostor Phenomenon * 6. Recommendations * Returning Self-Efficacy to Doctrine * Researching to Determine Statistical Significance * 7. ConclusionThis researcher explored the role of self-efficacy, commonly referred to as confidence, in operational decisionmaking while conducting LSCO. Commanding generals will rapid decisions in the age of big data. In future combat, leader self-doubt may contribute to mission failure. Doctrine directs commanders to trust their experiences; however, the same writings provide little insight into evaluating professional judgment and the impact of practice and observation of an individual's skills. In the pursuit of facts supporting self-efficacy concerning judgment and practice, assumptions remain. Human subjects research may dispel some of these assumptions. First, many individuals in the U.S. Army do not believe that operational leaders receive enough repetitions at decisionmaking during training. Semi-structured interviews may confirm this widespread assumption. Next, doctrine assumes leaders automatically execute an additional cognitive step in decisionmaking. After mentally selecting a course of action, leaders must possess enough confidence to translate decision into action. The third assumption presumes the U.S. Army does not provide candid feedback during training events. While the practice is not absent in doctrine, it may not be as frank as required to facilitate holistic leader development. When conducted correctly, frank discussions provide a perspective of one's ability and efficacy.

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Pages 84
Publisher Independently Published
Published N/A
ISBN 48936841
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U.S. Military
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U.S. Military is a writer and avid reader based in the Pacific Northwest. Before pursuing writing full-time, they spent over a decade working in education. When not working on their next book, U.S. Military can usually be found hiking with their dog or trying out new coffee shops in their neighborhood.

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Ryan Jackson
Ryan Jackson June 13, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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Charles Roberts September 18, 2024
Such a rich narrative. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
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I was completely blown away. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Absolutely brilliant. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars.
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A very strong entry. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
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Such a rich narrative. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars.
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Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
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Exceeded all my expectations. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Charles Davis February 17, 2024
I was completely blown away. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
Barbara Wilson
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A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A very distinguished novel.
Sandra Wilson
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I was completely blown away. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An effortless 5 stars.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
William Wilson
William Wilson September 16, 2024
Such a rich narrative. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
Amanda Taylor
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
Patricia Hall
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A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Nicholas Rodriguez
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Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
Barbara Young
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A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
Gary Thomas
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A very strong entry. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Rebecca Garcia
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Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A very distinguished novel.
Donna Martin
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Excellent, though slightly flawed. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Gary Hill
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Such a rich narrative. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Cynthia Wilson
Cynthia Wilson September 15, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Nancy Gonzalez
Nancy Gonzalez October 17, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A solid 4 stars from me.
Charles Moore
Charles Moore July 04, 2025
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Carol Carter
Carol Carter December 09, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Jennifer Reyes
Jennifer Reyes March 21, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Christopher Phillips
Christopher Phillips December 12, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Jessica Garcia
Jessica Garcia March 11, 2025
An acceptable diversion. It possessed moments of brilliance, but the narrative felt slightly disjointed ultimately. Suitable if your reading queue is empty.
Matthew Nguyen
Matthew Nguyen October 22, 2025
A highly sophisticated read. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
Barbara Adams
Barbara Adams June 09, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Ashley Thomas
Ashley Thomas April 03, 2025
Such a rich narrative. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem.
Paul Lopez
Paul Lopez June 29, 2024
An acceptable diversion. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
Thomas Clark
Thomas Clark October 22, 2025
Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Sandra Harris
Sandra Harris December 15, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Carol Carter
Carol Carter July 02, 2024
Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
Melissa Williams
Melissa Williams January 31, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Charles Walker
Charles Walker October 29, 2025
Such a rich narrative. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Susan Hernandez
Susan Hernandez August 23, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An effortless 5 stars.
Sandra Williams
Sandra Williams November 28, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Nicholas Perez
Nicholas Perez October 19, 2024
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Kenneth Cruz
Kenneth Cruz June 27, 2025
Not entirely to my refined tastes. It possessed moments of brilliance, but the narrative felt slightly disjointed ultimately. Unlikely to reread, but a reasonable expenditure of time.
Steven  Davis
Steven Davis November 09, 2025
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Laura Hall
Laura Hall January 15, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Susan Robinson
Susan Robinson July 21, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
Mark Hill
Mark Hill September 05, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Thomas Hernandez
Thomas Hernandez November 17, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Matthew Hernandez
Matthew Hernandez August 11, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
Barbara Lewis
Barbara Lewis March 21, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. Quite impressive overall.
Nancy Hall
Nancy Hall May 13, 2024
I find myself somewhat conflicted. The prose was competent, yet the characters lacked the depth I usually seek. A fair 3 stars.
Christopher Baker
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A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A very distinguished novel.
Barbara Nelson
Barbara Nelson May 26, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An effortless 5 stars.
Charles Roberts
Charles Roberts June 13, 2024
Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
Ryan Scott
Ryan Scott May 30, 2024
Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. A true literary gem.
Donna Martin
Donna Martin March 20, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An effortless 5 stars.
Karen Taylor
Karen Taylor June 05, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A very distinguished novel.
Linda Rivera
Linda Rivera April 05, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Sarah Martin
Sarah Martin November 09, 2024
I was completely blown away. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
Thomas Diaz
Thomas Diaz September 14, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Nancy Rodriguez
Nancy Rodriguez August 10, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Cynthia Nelson
Cynthia Nelson October 02, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
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