Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

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4.85
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Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Written by Philip E. Tetlock
4.85 56,822 ratings
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About this ebook:
The intelligence failures surrounding the invasion of Iraq dramatically illustrate the necessity of developing standards for evaluating expert opinion. This book fills that need. Here, Philip E. Tetlock explores what constitutes good judgment in predicting future events, and looks at why experts are often wrong in their forecasts.Tetlock first discusses arguments about whether the world is too complex for people to find the tools to understand political phenomena, let alone predict the future. He evaluates predictions from experts in different fields, comparing them to predictions by well-informed laity or those based on simple extrapolation from current trends. He goes on to analyze which styles of thinking are more successful in forecasting. Classifying thinking styles using Isaiah Berlin's prototypes of the fox and the hedgehog, Tetlock contends that the fox--the thinker who knows many little things, draws from an eclectic array of traditions, and is better able to improvise in response to changing events--is more successful in predicting the future than the hedgehog, who knows one big thing, toils devotedly within one tradition, and imposes formulaic solutions on ill-defined problems. He notes a perversely inverse relationship between the best scientific indicators of good judgement and the qualities that the media most prizes in pundits--the single-minded determination required to prevail in ideological combat.Clearly written and impeccably researched, the book fills a huge void in the literature on evaluating expert opinion. It will appeal across many academic disciplines as well as to corporations seeking to develop standards for judging expert decision-making.

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Published July 5, 2005
ISBN 89158
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Philip E. Tetlock
About the Author
Philip E. Tetlock

Philip E. Tetlock is the author of several novels. Originally from the East Coast, they now live in the Midwest with family. In addition to writing, Philip E. Tetlock enjoys gardening, cooking, and reading way past bedtime. Their work often explores the complexities of everyday life and human relationships.

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Ashley Collins
Ashley Collins June 04, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Linda Martin
Linda Martin July 20, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Daniel Anderson
Daniel Anderson November 27, 2024
Such a rich narrative. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Gary Jackson
Gary Jackson December 29, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Karen Clark
Karen Clark March 30, 2024
I was completely blown away. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
Cynthia Hill
Cynthia Hill March 28, 2024
Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
Kevin Nguyen
Kevin Nguyen May 19, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
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Ryan Diaz May 21, 2024
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. Worth every moment spent reading.
Eric Hill
Eric Hill January 09, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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A very strong entry. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Paul Phillips
Paul Phillips November 07, 2025
A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
James Walker
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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I was completely blown away. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An effortless 5 stars.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Masterpiece from start to finish. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
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A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Elizabeth Rodriguez
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A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
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Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
James Thomas
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A solid 4 stars from me.
Barbara Allen
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Absolutely brilliant. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Absolutely brilliant. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
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I was completely blown away. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Ryan Martin
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Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
Mary Sanchez
Mary Sanchez May 06, 2024
A decent, if standard, experience. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. Suitable if your reading queue is empty.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. Worth every moment spent reading.
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A decent, if standard, experience. The prose was competent, yet the characters lacked the depth I usually seek. Perhaps more aligned with a different audience's tastes.
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Edward Wilson August 21, 2024
I was completely blown away. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. Worth every moment spent reading.
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Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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Excellent, though slightly flawed. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A very distinguished novel.
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A solid 4 stars from me.
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A profoundly satisfying read. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. Worth every moment spent reading.
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A decent, if standard, experience. It verged on repetitive in the second act. A more concise edit would have served it well. Perfectly average.
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Christopher Garcia March 16, 2024
Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
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I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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Such a rich narrative. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. Worth every moment spent reading.
Rebecca Garcia
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A highly sophisticated read. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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Such a rich narrative. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. A true literary gem.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
Jennifer Wright
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Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
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Such a rich narrative. It strikes a perfect harmony of dialogue and world-building. Every chapter felt necessary. A true literary gem.
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A profoundly satisfying read. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An effortless 5 stars.
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Such a rich narrative. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
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Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
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A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. Quite impressive overall.
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A very strong entry. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
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An acceptable diversion. Certain acts were fascinating, while others felt like a slight endeavor to complete. A fair 3 stars.
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Exceeded all my expectations. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. Worth every moment spent reading.
Thomas Brown
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Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Emily Lopez
Emily Lopez July 18, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Mark Lee
Mark Lee April 12, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. I adored how the story unfolded. It kept me captivated without sacrificing elegance. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Elizabeth Sanchez
Elizabeth Sanchez October 31, 2024
Such a rich narrative. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
Donna Wilson
Donna Wilson June 16, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. A very distinguished novel.
Rebecca Nelson
Rebecca Nelson January 27, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Kevin Nguyen
Kevin Nguyen January 20, 2024
A very strong entry. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Edward Rodriguez
Edward Rodriguez October 27, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. A true literary gem.
Stephanie Martinez
Stephanie Martinez August 07, 2024
A very strong entry. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Steven Nelson
Steven Nelson January 22, 2024
Such a rich narrative. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Donna Wright
Donna Wright September 03, 2025
I was completely blown away. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Laura Jones
Laura Jones September 22, 2024
Such a rich narrative. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. A true literary gem.
Amanda Baker
Amanda Baker December 09, 2025
I was completely blown away. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. An effortless 5 stars.
Elizabeth Moore
Elizabeth Moore November 17, 2025
A profoundly satisfying read. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. An effortless 5 stars.
Brian Phillips
Brian Phillips August 31, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Jacob Mitchell
Jacob Mitchell December 06, 2025
A very strong entry. The middle had a deliberate pace, but the climax was phenomenal. A solid 4 stars from me.
Rebecca Garcia
Rebecca Garcia February 12, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Paul Lopez
Paul Lopez January 06, 2025
I find myself somewhat conflicted. The tempo was somewhat languid, and I found my mind wandering. Not poor, simply average. Unlikely to reread, but a reasonable expenditure of time.
Kenneth Gomez
Kenneth Gomez January 26, 2024
I thoroughly enjoyed the elegance of it. It held my rapt attention, even when certain twists were telegraphed. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Matthew Collins
Matthew Collins June 12, 2024
Exceeded all my expectations. The pacing was impeccable and the characters felt incredibly authentic. I was completely immersed. A true literary gem.
Mary Hernandez
Mary Hernandez March 27, 2024
Excellent, though slightly flawed. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A solid 4 stars from me.
Dorothy Robinson
Dorothy Robinson February 22, 2025
Excellent, though slightly flawed. A brilliant concept executed with flair. Just a few pacing choices I would change. A solid 4 stars from me.
Joshua White
Joshua White October 12, 2025
Exceeded all my expectations. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Dorothy Carter
Dorothy Carter December 28, 2025
Honestly one of the most premium reading experiences lately. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
Matthew King
Matthew King March 18, 2025
Absolutely brilliant. The author orchestrated a breathtaking finale. Truly a work of art. I will undoubtedly revisit this masterpiece.
James Gonzalez
James Gonzalez May 11, 2024
A profoundly satisfying read. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Matthew Jackson
Matthew Jackson September 26, 2024
A highly sophisticated read. Beautiful writing, though I craved slightly more depth in the lore. Still, undeniably engaging. I would highly recommend this to discerning readers.
Sandra Hill
Sandra Hill November 20, 2024
A decent, if standard, experience. It possessed moments of brilliance, but the narrative felt slightly disjointed ultimately. Unlikely to reread, but a reasonable expenditure of time.
Linda Edwards
Linda Edwards October 31, 2025
Masterpiece from start to finish. I became deeply invested in the protagonist's journey. A masterclass in storytelling. An absolute must-read for connoisseurs of the genre.
Joshua Nelson
Joshua Nelson January 13, 2025
Took a moment to build, but the payoff was spectacular. The protagonist was compelling, though some subplots felt slightly overshadowed. A wonderful companion for a quiet weekend.
Mary Hernandez
Mary Hernandez October 14, 2024
I was completely blown away. The prose is exquisite. It’s accessible yet undeniably sophisticated. I am now a lifelong fan of this author.
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